By Joseph Morales

Public transportation is the backbone and lifeblood of New York City, as millions of New Yorkers as well as visitors, rely on MTA subways and buses to traverse the city on a daily basis. According to data from the NYC Department of City Planning, 46% of residents across the five boroughs do not even own vehicles, making them entirely dependent on mass transit for getting around. Even with many office workers continuing to work on hybrid or remote schedules, the subway and bus systems served 84.3 million and 33.2 million paid riders, respectively, in February 2023, according to data from the NYC Comptroller’s office. According to the MTA website, the agency counts a rider as one who has paid the fare or used a Student MetroCard to board a subway train or bus route. Employees and those who make subway transfers without exiting the system are omitted from ridership counts.

                      Unfortunately, for many riders, like other essentials in one of the most expensive cities in the country, with inflation rising nationwide, it is hard for many to afford the $2.75 cost ride as data from the U.S Census Bureau states that 17.6% of New Yorkers live in poverty which is higher than the U.S rate of 11%. In addition, the data also shows that the median household income in NYC is $70,663, which is only slightly higher than the U.S median of $69,021 despite a substantially higher cost of living than the rest of the country with certain expenses such as housing and rent as well as goods and services costing 230 and 28% higher than national average rates respectively. It is also important to note that since several of the city’s most densely populated neighborhoods are among the highest-income neighborhoods, such as the Upper East and West Sides of Manhattan as well as Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights in Brooklyn and are home to over 600,000 residents in total, median values are likely skewed higher than what many New Yorkers make as the median refers to the middle value in a data set. 

                  This issue is likely to be exasperated by the MTA’s fiscal crisis. Despite the seemingly high number of fare-paying riders, the MTA has struggled with financial issues and billions of dollars of debt for years. It has also not helped the MTA’s situation that ridership despite still being high, subway and bus ridership is only back to 67 and 65% respectively, of pre-pandemic levels, costing the MTA millions in fare revenue on a daily basis. Thus, in order to cut costs and avoid more drastic and unpredictable fare increases, the MTA decided to implement biennial fare increases beginning in 2009. After a pause due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the MTA plans to resume these fare increases this year and has just completed its four public hearings on the issue. This year, the plan is for the fare to increase from $2.75 to $2.90 by Labor Day. Though this increase may not seem like a lot, it can eventually begin to accumulate on daily riders and thus make it harder for low-income individuals to be able to afford the transit system along with other essentials. 

                  However, as a result of funding provided by the recently adopted state budget, the MTA will be able to pursue multiple transit improvement measures and fare discounts in order to mitigate the adverse impact of these fare increases on riders, including making one bus route in each borough free to ride as part of a 6-12 month pilot program. While New York Governor Kathy Hochul originally intended to have the pilot last two years, the legislation shortened that timeframe as any length beyond that would have required a federally required Environmental Review, which is a process also typically required for more significant initiatives and projects such as congestion pricing. Thus, according to Deputy State Senate Majority Leader Mike Gianaris would delay the start of any pilot program for free bus routes. Nonetheless, a spokesperson for Gov. Hochul, Hazel Crampton-Hays told the Gothamist that the governor expects the MTA to continue to provide the free bus service “into 2025″, following the expiration of the pilot program. 

                  So, how will the bus routes be selected? There are two hard and fast factors that could eliminate a route from consideration. One is that the program cannot cost the MTA more than $15 million as per the legislation, which likely means that any one route in a particular borough cannot cost too much money if the program is meant to make an equitable impact across all five boroughs. Thus, the MTA likely cannot choose the highest ridership routes in which fare revenues are high, as this would impact their ability to offer free service on similarly important routes in other boroughs. Some exceptionally busy routes, such as the M15-SBS, which was the busiest bus route in the city in 2021, by itself would exceed the funding limits of the program as the route raked in $21,830,113.25 of fare revenue for the MTA in 2021, assuming you multiplied the route’s ridership by a $2.75 fare per rider. While the operating costs that fares would not be able to recoup play a role as well, most NYC bus routes are not significantly longer than others, so this should not have a substantial impact on which routes are chosen when considering the other criteria. 

                  However, since ridership on most Manhattan bus routes is higher due to population and activity density despite most travelers using the subway and Staten Island ridership is lower due to a lower population density, slightly more funds can likely be spent in Manhattan and slightly less funds can be spent in Staten Island. In addition, similar amounts of funds could be spent on making a bus route free in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn, as ridership on individual bus routes in these boroughs tend to be in a similar range. This will ensure that a free bus route will have an equitable impact on riders in each of the five boroughs.

                     The number of routes that cost restrictions would eliminate as possibilities likely depends on the time duration the MTA chooses for the initial pilot program along with the ridership of routes. Given that the cost limit for the pilot is $15 million regardless of how long it is in effect, free service is likely to cost more on a particular route the longer it is run. Thus, a year-long pilot versus a six-month one would give the MTA less options as to which routes could be selected.

                   Another criterion that could prevent a bus route from becoming free is if it shares any portion of its route with another route. This is so that the free bus route does not usurp what would have been fare-paying riders on another route that does require payment. In addition, the MTA does not want riders to be confused as to which route is free and which one requires payment on a particular corridor. Also, MTA chairman Janno Lieber told the Gothamist that choosing a route that does not share street space with another will make the effects of free bus service easier to study.

It is unclear if this rule only applies to routes that spend a significant amount of their route on a particular corridor, otherwise this would eliminate most routes that operate through common hubs such as Downtown Flushing and Jamaica in Queens or the St. George Ferry Terminal in Staten Island from consideration. It would also eliminate routes that share corridors with other routes by a matter of blocks. However, it is worth noting that the MTA made the Q70-SBS free and not the M60-SBS despite both routes both sharing street space in LaGuardia Airport, a transportation hub full of tourists who likely have little understanding of the MTA’s fare structure, hence there may be room for routes that share hubs or small amounts of street space to become free. For the purposes of this analysis, I’ll be including routes that share limited amounts of street space(ex: a few blocks) or terminals with other routes.

                  Routes that have two variants but otherwise serve the same corridor in the Bronx and Staten Island[Ex: Bx28/38(Gun Hill Rd), S40/S90(Richmond Terrace)] is generally considered as one route for MTA ridership totals, and both variants would likely be free should the MTA choose one of these routes as part of its pilot. These routes also tend to share a common schedule. For example, on the Bx25/26, service is split between the variants, and thus every bus that arrives is of the opposite variant. (Ex: 25, 26, 25…) Route combinations that are not considered one route but share corridors for a substantial portion of their route and thus would almost certainly not be able to become free include the Bx9/Bx19(Southern Blvd) and the M1/M2/M3/M4/M5(Fifth Avenue) buses. Select Bus Service or SBS routes that have a local and select variant, such as the Bx12-SBS/LCL and the B46-SBS/LCL, would also not be eliminated under this particular specification. However, route combinations such as the Q20/Q44-SBS likely could not become free because they both have separate schedules and are not considered part of the same route.

                    Now, despite the criteria eliminating a good portion of the city’s most critical routes as well as routes that operate along some of the city’s busiest corridors, what routes would riders still benefit the most from being free? Earlier in state budget talks, the State Legislature wanted to have two free routes in a borough, with one serving a low-income community and another serving a commercial strip, before the budget was passed, enabling only one route per borough to become free. It is unclear whether the MTA will still use the framework from the initial criteria to make a route selection.

                    There are some considerations that most would likely agree should be taken into account so that as many riders as possible can reap the full benefits of the route and so that riders who could take the most advantage of the program can. Some of these considerations can include the density of low-income individuals living along the route, the route’s connectivity to other routes, and the route’s ability to attract motorists who would have driven otherwise. What these factors look like and how they come into play looks different in each borough.

                     One point that can affect the success of a free bus route is that on many bus routes throughout the five boroughs, high percentages of riders often transfer between routes to get to their destinations. As the MTA generally provides free transfers for paying riders, one must wonder if this will continue for those who have to transfer from free routes to other routes and the subway. According to the existing conditions reports for both The Bronx and Brooklyn, bus network redesigns, more than half of riders transfer to other buses or the subway on practically all bus routes with the exception of express buses, which provide service between the outer boroughs and Midtown Manhattan. Hence, free transfers would be necessary in order to make a ride truly free for riders.

                   For example, The Bronx is the city’s poorest borough as well as the poorest county in the state, with a 26.7% poverty rate, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. It is important to note that the federal poverty rate is based on the cost of living in the United States as a whole rather than any particular municipality. Hence, the percentage of Bronxites struggling to make ends meet with a median income of $43,726 is likely higher. In The Bronx, only 42% of households own a vehicle, with rates being considerably lower and as low as 25% in some of the borough’s most densely populated, low-income communities according to data from the NYC Department of City Planning(DCP). Hence, there is a higher consensus of need boroughwide for lower-cost commodities than in other boroughs, including transportation.

                   As the borough’s low-income communities are spread through almost the entire borough and have a range of land uses from residential to commercial to industrial and everything in between, the MTA could choose many routes that would benefit riders. As for car owners that tend to have more transportation options, they tend to live across the borough but only dominate the population in the lower-density, far eastern and northwestern corners of the borough, where route options are more limited, and frequencies are lower. These areas, such as the Riverdale and Throgs Neck areas, also tend to be near some of the borough’s critical highways, such as the Henry Hudson Pkwy and Interstate 95; thus, these motorists tend to have ample connections by highway to the rest of the region. Hence, the likelihood that many of them will switch to transit is rather low. However, some car owners from across the borough may use a free bus to get to shopping areas in higher-density areas such as Fordham and Tremont, where parking is rather difficult, and congestion is high.

                    Bus routes that can likely benefit the most Bronxites by being free and not costing the MTA much greater than $5 million include the Bx8, Bx11, Bx16, Bx17, and Bx27. All of these routes serve largely low-income communities and serve vital north-south or east-west connections with no subway service. The Bx27 is particularly critical in the Soundview area as buses here are the main form of transit in a community where 61% of residents take transit to work, according to census data obtained by Streetsblog in July 2021. While many Bronxites would likely prefer higher ridership routes to become free, these are likely the routes that can become free without hampering the MTA’s ability to make meaningful routes free in other boroughs. 

                     As for Queens, it is the largest borough and is arguably the most bus dependent, with many residents living far from subway stations. Some residents live so far from subway service that their communities do not even appear on the subway map, particularly in Eastern Queens. Queens also has the second highest rate of car ownership(63% of households) and the lowest poverty rate(10.3%) of any NYC borough, according to data from the NYC DCP and the news site THE CITY respectively. Much of the low-income and transit-dependent in Queens are concentrated in densely populated areas of Western Queens such as Astoria, Long Island City(LIC), Jackson Heights, Woodside, and Corona. In community districts located in this area, car ownership rates are generally at or below 50% of households.

                As the subway provides generally reliable east-west service for much of the area in addition to the 31st St corridor between Astoria and LIC, the community would likely benefit the most from a north-south bus or Northern Blvd bus route becoming free. However, as the Northern Blvd crosstown route, the Q66 raked in over $8 million for the MTA in 2021 in fare revenue when the ridership total was multiplied by the fare, it will likely not become free given the amount of funding available for the free buses program as earlier stated. North-south bus routes that the community could likely most benefit from becoming free include the Q29, Q33, Q39, Q47, and Q72. 

                As for Staten Island, this borough, too, has a similar poverty rate(10.6% vs 10.3% for Queens) but an even higher car ownership rate of 83% of households, making it the most car-dependent borough in the city. As most Staten Island streets, with the exception of a few major corridors such as Hylan Blvd and Richmond Ave, experience more menial amounts of congestion versus other boroughs, and many businesses have parking lots. Thus, it is unlikely that free buses will convince many to drive. 

                      However, like Queens, much of the borough’s most densely populated areas, as well as low-income and transit-dependent populations, is concentrated in one large area, albeit to a greater extent. On the North Shore of Staten Island, only 73% of households own cars, and those that do tend to own 1.21 per household versus 1.49 in Mid-Island and 1.75 on the South Shore. This means that North Shore households are also 28% less likely to own multiple cars than Mid-Island households and 54% less likely than South Shore households. Thus, this may mean that North Shore residents have less mobility by car than those in the rest of the borough, particularly if they live in a household that shares a single vehicle. In addition, the North Shore of Staten Island has a poverty rate of 16.7% and a median income of $77,170 which is lower than other areas of Staten Island according to data from the NYU Furman Center, indicating car ownership and usage is likely more of a burden on North Shore residents than other Staten Islanders. 

                   Hence, free buses should almost undoubtedly serve the North Shore and since Staten Island has significantly lower bus ridership numbers than other boroughs and most corridors do not serve multiple individual routes, most Staten Island routes are likely plausible candidates for free service on the grounds of cost. Possible options of routes that traverse the North Shore include the S40/90, S46/96 and S48/98. In addition, to connecting neighborhoods across the North Shore to each other, they also connect to the St. George Ferry Terminal, which is a prime destination for Staten Island bus riders that provides them access to the Staten Island Ferry as well as the borough’s commercial and civic center.

                       As for Manhattan, since most of the borough has ample access to subway service, buses are primarily used for crosstown travel. However, many might still use north-south bus routes due to crime concerns in the subway or if the stairs and crowded conditions make it harder for them to utilize the subway system. Even if buses are used less often as opposed to the subway, bus ridership is still higher on most Manhattan bus routes due to the borough’s sheer residential and activity density.  In addition, Manhattan residents might be more inclined to use local buses for tasks such as grocery shopping or taking younger children to school. As stated earlier, due to lower ridership on Staten Island routes, the MTA can likely choose a higher ridership Manhattan route to make free while still maintaining equity in the free bus route program across the five boroughs. Unfortunately, the MTA will likely not choose a north-south route, as pretty much every north-south street with a bus route in Manhattan has more than one. In addition, many of the crosstown routes north of 125th Street, are Bronx routes and traverse most of their routes there before crossing a bridge and traversing a Manhattan east-west corridor such as 145th and 155th Streets where the Bx19 and Bx6-LCL/SBS run respectively. 

                    Thus, options for free routes can include crosstown buses such as the M42, M66, M79-SBS, M8 or M116. The M9 which runs across town and north-south between Battery Park City and Kips Bay can also be considered. Though most north-south routes are already out of the running due to sharing street space with other routes, choosing a shorter crosstown route will allow the MTA to save on operating costs that could drive up the costs of the program. There is a greater length difference between north/south and east/west bus routes in Manhattan due to the Mnahattan’s substantially greater length than width.

                     Brooklyn is likely the toughest borough to choose a free route for as it is the most populated and most socioeconomically diverse borough with a variety of mobility contexts. Thus as you might expect, there are a plethora of routes and a plethora of riders that could benefit immensely from free service in practically all corners of the borough. As the borough has by far bee the fastest growing of all five boroughs over the past decade, the MTA is likely better off prioritizing routes that run in the areas with the highest concentrations of low-income individuals that are also primed for the most development. This is so that service in these areas is easier to justify in the future as activity density grows, in addition to being able to benefit the current bus riders in these communities.  

                    These communities are generally concentrated in the eastern portion of the borough and include neighborhoods such as Crown Heights, Brownsville, and East New York. Bus routes that primarily serve these areas, along with a large ridership base that could benefit from free service include the B14, B45, B60 and B65 buses.

                     As the NYC bus system is the largest in America, running it is extremely expensive and rarely turns a profit. Despite this fact as well as the added fiscal instability that has led to fare hikes, the MTA along with New York State hopes that the free bus service program can bring some relief to the bus riders that need it most. Hopefully while doing just that, the MTA can use to program to gauge new ridership demand and use data recorded to not only determine how to increase equity in transit access, but to improve bus service entirely for years to come.

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